TMC's Advisor

The Advisor is published by TMC

Solar Flares Cause Important Business Risk

In 1859, a massive coronal mass ejection event scored a direct hit on the earth. The resulting electromagnetic pulse wreaked havoc on world telegraph circuits for hours. A similar event will likely wipe out all unprotected technology infrastructure for many months. Activity is increasing with the peak of the 11-year cycle expected in 2025.

By Peter Aggus

Peter is a technology management consultant who specializes in security and radio systems. He has developed innovative & cost-effective solutions for clients in many industries.

Solar Flares and CMEs

A Solar Flare is a brilliant flash of light on the surface of the Sun. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is an immense cloud of magnetized particles hurled into space, sometimes toward Earth. Both are caused by periodic disturbances in the Sun’s magnetic field – what we observe as ‘sunspots’. We are heading towards the next maximum in 2025, when solar flares and CMEs will be increasingly more frequent and much more energetic. This increased activity is why we can enjoy a spectacular Aurora at relatively southern latitudes.

A BBC report identifies that these coronal mass ejections can weigh up to a trillion kg and can travel at speeds up to 3,000 km per second, fairly regularly intersecting Earth’s orbit and interfering with the operations of satellites, terrestrial telecom networks and power grids.

Richard Carrington, an English amateur astronomer, observed and named the massive CME event in 1859. It has been recently estimated as the energy of 10 billion atomic bombs when it was ejected from the sun. When the CME hit the Earth’s magnetic field, it caused an electromagnetic pulse equivalent to that from a 10-megaton nuclear blast.

In 1989 a CME hit caused a nine-hour outage of Hydro-Québec’s electricity transmission system and that event was a fraction of the size of the Carrington event.

Effects of a CME Hit

Normally, the Earth’s magnetic field deflects cosmic radiation and plasma from reaching the planet’s surface. However, this protection does not extend to many satellites and the ISS.

When a large enough direct hit on earth happens, it can result in the energetic plasma interacting with the magnetosphere and causing massive circulating currents in suitably aligned metallic systems, such as cables and pipes. The longer the conductor, the greater the induced current. Power line conductors will carry that current into their terminating transformers – often causing voltage flashovers and physical damage. If many transformers are damaged, the grid could be down for potentially months (replacement parts are not available on Amazon).

Metal in telecom networks is also a risk. Modern fibre optic cable cores are not metallic, but there is still a lot of metal in the network. Cables may be sheathed in metal foil, submarine cables are often protected by metal armor, and aerial cables have a metallic messenger wire to carry the weight.

Recent insurance estimates by Lloyds of London estimate the damage of a massive CME hit to the US economy alone in the 3 trillion-dollar range making hurricanes and even earthquakes seem rather insignificant.

How Likely is it?

A 2020 study by the University of Warwick looked back over geologic records for tell-tale markers of previous such events. They found that there is annually a 4% chance of at least one ‘severe’ storm, such as the 1989 one that knocked out the Hydro Quebec grid, and a 0.7% chance of a Carrington scale ‘great’ event. That is about one every 150 years – making the next one statistically overdue.

For comparison, earthquake scientists warn that a magnitude 8 quake in the Pacific Northwest occurs approximately every 230 years, while magnitude 9 ones (aka ‘The Big One’) happens about every 500 years. A Carrington event will not demolish buildings, nor level cities. It will not by itself kill thousands – leading many to dismiss concerns. Bearing in mind how technology dependent we are now, the effects of losing power and telecommunications could lead to many more deaths over a much wider area than an earthquake.

What is Being Done?

Our satellite observation network sees CMEs and can give warning when one is headed towards us. Normally that gives us a few days notice – but the Carrington CME was so energetic that it covered the distance in just over 17 hours.

Power and telecommunications companies are aware of the risks and have implemented mitigation plans. Unlike 1850s telegraph lines, careful grounding, as with lightning arrestors, and isolation from circuitry inside buildings is important.

Power circuits can be provided with surge protectors to safely ground over-voltage surges, but that is not a current code requirement.

What Can You Do?

As an end-user, you need to consider how your equipment connected to the outside world would perform if subjected to a massive voltage spike. Your electrical service might go from 120v to a thousand times that for a short time. Is your service protected to prevent such a spike being passed on to all your IT systems? A suitable surge protector might cost you a few hundred dollars to install. More extensive protection could cost thousands.

Communications systems, where copper wires enter your building, can also be protected by surge arrestors designed for the purpose.

Make sure your ground systems, safety and lightning protection, are up to the job. Sadly, many IT installations we have seen have paid scant attention to grounding.

You also need to consider that you may be fine, but your power and/or communications services might fail. Can your business survive without them – for a few hours, or days, or … ? Consider this in your risk register and DRP.

If you’d like to discuss risks to your systems, or to comment on this article, please email me at .

This article was published in the November 2024 edition of The TMC Advisor
- ISSN 2369-663X Volume:11 Issue:6

©2024 TMC Consulting