Background

You live with countless tiny changes: new faces and tasks and technology at work, new routines at home. Those changes you don’t welcome, you learn to tolerate. You get by. Some changes are unpleasant or painful, but you survive. You accept change as a natural part of life. There’s no point in fighting it, and every reason to adapt to it. Such is the message in numerous self-help books.

Then the environment ceases to be a trendy topic in coffee houses, and becomes an urgent issue for the entire human race. You learn that globally, climates are changing at what scientists consider an alarming rate. The evidence, while incomplete and open to criticism, suggests that within a few decades evolving climates will force us to develop new ways of building communities and growing food. Our health care systems must be prepared to deal with different forms of disease. If we don’t find or create alternative energy sources, our transportation and distribution of goods could be sharply curtailed.

Already we must deal with changing weather patterns, as anyone in southern Ontario can attest after a winter of severe snowstorms. In fact extreme weather has become more frequent worldwide. Coupled with population growth and established risk profiles, climate change will lead to big differences in the way we live, think and do business.

Risks Past and Present

In BC, the past 20 years have witnessed substantial economic progress and infrastructure development, a growing population, and, as a corollary, an increasingly complex risk profile. Risks that prevailed in the past continue to do so, but owing to climate change, traditional risks can have even more serious consequences than they did when BC was less developed.

Insurers are familiar with BC’s basic risk profile. This includes fires and flooding, winter storms in the province’s interior regions, moderate to high property crime levels in the cities, and the ever-present threat of the Big One, a megathrust earthquake that could strike the Lower Mainland, which includes Vancouver and its suburbs. Approximately 75% of BC residents live in and around Vancouver, hence insurers’ concerns about the effects of even a moderate earthquake on the region.

“Technically the chances of an earthquake damaging large stretches of the West Coast remain the same,” says Jim Paulson, an emergency response planner in Seattle, Washington. “You could say that the Big One’s getting closer with every hour that passes, and that some day we—in Seattle, Vancouver and Victoria—are going to get hit hard. We’re not well prepared for that, and now with climate change we have other things to grab our attention and budgets. Human nature being what it is, I don’t believe that we’re adapting quickly enough to lessen the effects of a future regional disaster, either an earthquake or a climate-related event.”

Housing Under Water

Since southern BC has become a popular region for newcomers to settle, the changing risk profile is especially evident in Greater Vancouver, which boasts one the busiest real estate markets in Canada, and some of the highest housing costs. Numerous new developments are under construction, and despite concerns about the US economic downturn and the subprime mortgage fiasco, there’s no sign of similar problems in suburbs such as Surrey and Richmond.

More housing entails the spread of communities into areas that might not have been as popular with urban planners, developers and buyers in the past. Hence many new residences and commercial sites are located near potential flood zones along rivers such as the Fraser. Development in the Fraser Valley has included the extension of roads and proliferation of new community facilities and services. And while the media focus on the flood risk in southwestern BC, there are numerous other areas in the province’s Interior that are equally at risk from flooding.

“Any town in BC’s rural areas could experience a bad flood,” says Karl Ferguson, a building contractor who has worked extensively in Western Canada. “What worries me is the lack of foresight in BC’s smaller communities. For the past several years, the goal has been to develop as quickly as possible. The new construction is good-looking, and it sells fast, but I wonder about those riverfront neighbourhoods. Flooding could destroy many properties, but in a hot market people don’t want to hear that.”

More Fires, Less Equipment

Forest fires have threatened BC towns since the first settlers arrived. With more buildings to consume, these fires could be even more dangerous in and around towns in central BC. Fire departments in many areas have not grown quickly enough to respond effectively to large and quickly-spreading forest fires.

“I’ve been a volunteer firefighter in a number of small BC towns,” says Ferguson. “It’s usually the same story. There aren’t enough firefighters, and some of those available lack training and experience. And there isn’t enough equipment, or the equipment on hand is too old.”

Ferguson observes that BC’s rural firefighters work hard, and will assist neighbouring towns if a big fire threatens them. But good intentions aren’t enough to handle a fire that threatens a town from multiple points, and exceeds the capacity of crews to respond soon enough to prevent losses of buildings and other assets.

Ironically the forest fire that frightens many people more than any other is that which could erupt in Vancouver’s Stanley Park. Smoke and fumes from such a fire could force an evacuation of Vancouver’s downtown core, and shut down the business district for days. Residents with condos or residential accommodation near the Park could lose their homes.

The Word on Climate Change

Investigations of BC’s changing risk profile occur frequently in local media. With the upcoming wildfire season, emergency measures and security are popular topics. There’s heightened interest in rare events such as volcanic explosions and tsunamis. For insurers, the most informative document on BC’s future risks is From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007, available free from the website of Natural Resources Canada (www.nrcan.gc.ca). The chapter on BC contains a thorough and readable treatment of risks that arise from climate change in BC. The summary of key findings contains details that might surprise those unfamiliar with climatology and environmental science. Fortunately, the document is clearly written and easier for a lay person to understand than many other works on climate change.

First, BC communities could experience serious water shortages in future. People who complain about Vancouver’s frequent rainfall might be astonished to learn that water shortages will increase in many BC regions. Smaller glaciers and reduced snowpack will decrease the amount of water available to residents. Changing rainfall trends and drought in some areas will also lead to shortages. Building larger reservoirs is one way to reduce the effects of a shortage, but there remains the vulnerability of BC’s power supply, which depends on hydroelectric sources such as large dams. With less water, dams will produce less power. Wind power resources and coal-fired generators are potential alternative sources, but it is not certain that they will provide enough power to growing communities.

Another key finding is that extreme weather will exacerbate risks and cause disruptions in all sectors. This will not surprise Vancouverites who suffered through a series of windstorms between November 2006 and January 2007. Such weather can also involve or lead to forest fires, storm surges, landslides, hail, flooding, droughts, and the erosion of coast lines.

“Essentially, BC’s really bad weather will distribute water into all the wrong places,” says Geoff Barclay, a forestry consultant in Vancouver. “You’ll get too much rainfall causing a river to flood, while in another part of the province you’ll see drought conditions and lots of angry ranchers and farmers. It’s the flooding that could result in the worst damage.”

The authors of From Impacts to Adaptation discuss the risks to BC communities that rely on the forestry industry from risks related to climate change. These include the mountain pine beetle infestation that has already struck 9.2 million hectares of forests, as well as forest fires. The document’s dispassionate tone doesn’t give the reader a feel for the kinds of social problems that could occur as BC’s lumber communities experience economic downturns, rising unemployment, and an increasingly uncertain future.

Fisheries and Farms

Climate change could have a deleterious effect on wild salmon stocks. While the media cover this issue regularly, it’s not the only problem the fisheries could face. There are concerns about temperature increases in the Pacific Ocean and in freshwater resources including rivers and lakes. Rising temperatures could attract exotic species into BC waters.

“You get the wrong kind of fish in our waters, you’re going to see a lot less salmon,” says Ken Martin, a commercial fisherman who has worked off BC’s coast for 20 years. “You can talk about replacing wild salmon with the farmed variety. Aquaculture is supposed to be the next big thing. But fish farms aren’t so popular because of the amount of pollution that they produce. You’ll hear a lot more about this issue as we depend more on farmed salmon than on wild stocks.”

BC’s agricultural sector will also face problems arising from changing weather patterns, particularly drought and the instability of water supplies. Farmers could find themselves competing with expanding communities for fresh water. Even now there are frequent disputes about the encroachment of new construction on farm land, and the apportioning of valuable resources. In the end, politicians and water resources managers will have to make difficult decisions about who will receive how much water.

There are no easy solutions to the multi-faceted challenge of climate change. Because the human race is slow to respond to global threats, you can expect things to get worse before they improve. If you reside in BC, you should prepare for even more rainfall, or no rain at all. You should get used to sushi made from farmed salmon. If you depend on the forests for a living, you should try to diversify your revenue sources – that is, you should look for other ways to make money, since employment in your region might decrease. The authors of From Impacts to Adaptation recommend food stockpiling as a way to adapt to future circumstances. Filling your cupboards with extra canned goods sounds like an act of desperation, but then it could be essential to your survival. Consider these changes a part of your future.